Possible scenario
Russia Tests Poland
25% Chance
Moscow responds to Poland's legal preparations with calibrated pressure below the threshold of direct war. Drone probes, jamming, cyber activity and disinformation are used to test NATO reaction times and Polish public resolve.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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