Possible scenario
Republicans Reinvest
25% Chance
Republican leaders decide that abandoning North Carolina is too risky given its importance to Senate control. Trump, Whatley, and national GOP committees coordinate new fundraising and restore enough advertising to keep the race close.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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