Possible scenario
Cooper Gains Edge
40% Chance
The ad cut proves to be an early signal that Republicans see North Carolina slipping away. Roy Cooper consolidates support in the Research Triangle, Charlotte suburbs, and among unaffiliated voters while Michael Whatley struggles to expand beyond Trump's base.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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