Possible scenario
Case Enters Discovery
30% Chance
The court allows key parts of the family’s lawsuit to proceed, forcing DHS, ICE, and named Trump-era officials to preserve documents and answer questions under oath. This path is plausible because the parallel criminal charges strengthen the family’s argument that factual disputes require discovery.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.