Possible scenario
Managed Blockade Persists
30% Chance
The U.S. and Iran avoid major direct combat but neither side backs down. Shipping resumes only in fragments, with U.S. and allied navies escorting some vessels while Iran keeps pressure on tankers tied to U.S. sanctions enforcement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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