Possible scenario
Delayed Diplomatic Reopening
35% Chance
Washington's rejection is followed by revised talks rather than immediate escalation. Oman, Qatar, the UN secretary-general and European diplomats push a narrower formula that lets commercial traffic resume before the seven Iranian demands are resolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.7%
- Energy -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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