Possible scenario
Independence fight intensifies
20% Chance
The audit could become a proxy fight over Fed independence, given Trump's earlier attacks on Powell over the same renovation issue and Warsh's Trump-backed nomination. Markets would pay more attention if lawmakers frame the review as evidence of political pressure on the central bank.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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