Possible scenario
Audit largely clears
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Warsh's audit reinforces the September watchdog finding: poor project controls and cost discipline, but no clear legal violation. The Fed can present the review as a governance reset while letting the headquarters transfer proceed under another federal agency.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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