Possible scenario
Deal Advances Smoothly
45% Chance
South Korea, U.S. utilities, and Westinghouse resolve the main commercial and technology-sharing issues, allowing the $200 billion program to move from political announcement to executable project planning. This is the base case because the prior cooperation agreement, U.S. loan support, and South Korea's project selection all point toward a coordinated industrial policy push.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Utilities +1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
Tickers
- CCO+2.9%
- BN+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.