Managed De-escalation

The most likely path is that the USS Bush departure reflects deliberate de-escalation or normal rotation rather than a collapse of U.S. readiness. Washington keeps the USS George Washington in theater, reinforces with aircraft and escorts as needed, and uses Oman or Qatar channels to reduce the chance of another Iranian missile launch.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.