Possible scenario
Limited Military Clash
18% Chance
A contained kinetic exchange remains plausible because Iran has already fired anti-ship missiles and the U.S. posture is in flux. The most likely clash would involve drones, missile intercepts, or a narrow U.S. strike on launch infrastructure rather than a sustained air campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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