Possible scenario
Narrow Compromise Passes
20% Chance
A scaled-down version of the ADAPT Act is attached to a year-end tax or appropriations vehicle. Lawmakers prioritize provisions with bipartisan support, such as broker-definition clarity and limited de minimis relief, while leaving broader DeFi questions for later.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- COIN+3.1%
- +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.