Possible scenario
Rates Drive Risk-Off
20% Chance
The crypto selloff broadens into a rates-driven risk-asset pullback if the Treasury yield spike continues. Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to real-rate and dollar moves, especially after ETF momentum weakened.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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