Possible scenario
Unrest Broadens Further
20% Chance
The protests expand from student blockades into larger anti-austerity and anti-police demonstrations, with Belgian campuses and French lycées coordinating actions. This becomes a material developed-market social unrest event, but still falls short of a systemic European crisis over the immediate 1-2 day horizon.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.