Possible scenario
Repeal Advances Gradually
42% Chance
Lithuania continues the legislative process to remove its nuclear-weapons ban, but the government frames the change as legal optionality rather than a basing decision. NATO allies welcome the deterrence signal while avoiding any immediate announcement on warheads or delivery systems.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- LMT+0.5%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.