Possible scenario
Nationwide Escalation
27% Chance
The Milan riot becomes a catalyst for broader demonstrations in other Italian cities. This would turn a local public-order problem into a national political stress test for Meloni's budget and energy-price strategy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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