Possible scenario
Contained Unrest
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the Milan unrest remains serious but locally contained. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government and Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala move quickly with policing, targeted utility relief and rent measures to prevent the demonstrations from spreading.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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