Possible scenario
Budget Strain
22% Chance
The riots intensify pressure on Rome to soften the 2026 deficit-cutting budget unveiled earlier in October. The core issue becomes whether the government can fund cost-of-living relief without undermining credibility with Brussels and bond investors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Utilities -0.4%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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