Possible scenario
Prolonged City Disruption
30% Chance
Floodwater drainage is slower than officials expect, keeping parts of Bangkok closed for several more days. The economic damage is concentrated in local travel, retail, commuting, and logistics rather than global markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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