Possible scenario
US Scrutiny Tightens
30% Chance
The U.S. Treasury Department, FinCEN, OFAC, and congressional committees increase scrutiny of banks that may be helping Beijing obscure sovereign holdings. The focus remains on reporting, beneficial ownership, and sanctions-compliance risk rather than an immediate freeze or prohibition.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Technology -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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