Possible scenario
Opacity Becomes Baseline
40% Chance
China continues using offshore custodians and foreign banks to obscure the beneficial ownership of U.S. Treasury bonds, but the transfers are treated as an accounting and transparency issue rather than outright liquidation. Markets conclude the headline does not necessarily mean large net selling of Treasurys.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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