Possible scenario
Trade Fight Escalates
25% Chance
The White House pairs the 51st-state rhetoric with trade pressure, extending the political conflict into tariffs, USMCA review, or border enforcement. This is plausible because Trump already imposed a 35% Canada tariff in July 2025 and has repeatedly used tariffs as leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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