Possible scenario
Institutions Contain Dispute
20% Chance
US institutional checks and allied pressure make clear that annexation has no viable legal or legislative path. The dispute remains politically noisy, but practical cooperation on defense, energy, and trade resumes through narrower channels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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