Possible scenario
Renewed Consulate Confrontation
25% Chance
The compromise proves fragile, with another dispute over maps, plaques, diplomatic notes, or consular access reopening the Jerusalem row. Both sides stop short of a full break, but the risk of retaliatory expulsions returns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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