Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Reset
45% Chance
London and Jerusalem preserve the consulate compromise after the UK removes contested East Jerusalem signage and Israel accepts a face-saving clarification. This is the most likely path because both governments have already stepped back from the expulsion threat and have incentives to avoid a wider bilateral rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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