Possible scenario
Low-Intensity Policy Standoff
18% Chance
The immediate diplomatic crisis ends, but UK-Israel relations remain strained by Palestinian state recognition and the UK ban on settlement trade. The dispute becomes a recurring policy irritant rather than a market-moving geopolitical shock.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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