Possible scenario
Default Upheld
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that ATP officials treat the incident as a clear code violation and leave the disqualification intact. Given Djokovic's 2020 default for hitting a line judge, precedent favors a strict ruling even if Medvedev argues lack of intent.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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