Possible scenario
Expanded Strike Campaign
25% Chance
Russia follows the destructive strike with additional missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, seeking to degrade heating, power and fuel resilience before winter. The risk is a broader energy-security shock for Ukraine and nearby European gas markets, though still short of a systemic global crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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