Possible scenario
Legal Fight Escalates
25% Chance
The donor’s defamation lawsuit becomes the main source of risk because discovery can produce texts, emails, and sworn testimony faster than the government probe. Even if Trump maintains denial, court filings could keep the story active and widen the circle of people questioned.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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