Possible scenario
U.S. Military Response
28% Chance
Washington concludes that convoy defense alone is failing after repeated tanker hits and authorizes direct strikes on Iranian naval and missile assets. The response is likely to be limited at first, but the presence of three U.S. carriers raises the chance of rapid escalation if Iran retaliates.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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