Possible scenario
Expanded Maritime Harassment
42% Chance
Iran uses the new naval units to widen missile, drone, and small-boat harassment into the eastern Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman without declaring a full closure. The most likely near-term path is continued attrition against shipping and U.S.-escorted convoys while both sides avoid a decisive strike that would force immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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