Possible scenario
Diplomatic Stabilization
18% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries press Iran and the United States into a short operational pause to prevent a broader war. This is less likely than continued clashes, but Tehran may accept a temporary pause if it believes it has demonstrated leverage over Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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