Possible scenario
EM Rollover Stress
20% Chance
A stronger dollar and still-high real rates make refinancing harder for vulnerable emerging markets. The stress is not broad enough to resemble a systemic crisis, but it forces investors to reassess credit risk in lower-rated sovereign and corporate borrowers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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