Possible scenario
Regional Military Escalation
23% Chance
Despite the denial, Iran or aligned forces treat the dispute as part of a broader confrontation and test U.S. red lines in the Gulf, Iraq, Syria, or the Red Sea. This scenario is less likely than rhetorical containment, but the recent timeline of Iranian attacks makes it a material risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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