Possible scenario
Messaging Dispute Persists
27% Chance
The denial does not end the controversy, and both Washington and Tehran use the episode for political messaging. The risk is not an immediate attack, but a longer period of ambiguity that keeps investors cautious about U.S.-Iran escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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