US Strikes Back

A direct U.S. military response becomes likely if Iranian fire damages a U.S. vessel, kills mariners, or disables another tanker under escort. This would mark a major escalation, but Washington would probably initially target launchers, radar, and IRGC naval assets rather than pursue regime-change objectives.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.