Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Attacks
40% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a larger U.S.-led escort operation that reduces but does not eliminate tanker strikes. Washington avoids immediate strikes on Iranian territory while trying to keep insurance, shipping, and oil flows functioning through Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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