Possible scenario
Limited Ceasefire Progress
38% Chance
The most likely path is incremental progress rather than a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia settlement. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner use the constructive Miami session to refine a narrow proposal focused on energy infrastructure, prisoner exchanges, and a possible Moscow follow-up.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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