Possible scenario
Negotiated CMS Release
35% Chance
California Health and Human Services Agency and CMS reach a documentation-based resolution rather than a permanent funding cut. The Trump administration keeps pressure on Medi-Cal antifraud controls, but most of the withheld money is treated as a compliance deferral, not a disallowance.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.5%
Tickers
- CNC+1.9%
- MOH+1.5%
- ELV+0.9%
- THC+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.