Possible scenario
Rates Keep Rising
40% Chance
Electricity prices continue to rise as utilities pass through transmission upgrades, generation additions and storm-hardening costs. AI data-center demand keeps peak-load forecasts high, making the political pledge to cut energy prices harder to meet.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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