Possible scenario
Talks Stay Alive
38% Chance
Russia does not publicly endorse Trump’s announced energy truce, but Washington, Kyiv and intermediaries keep negotiating a narrower arrangement. Moscow preserves ambiguity to avoid appearing to accept U.S. terms while still testing whether reciprocal limits on energy strikes serve its interests.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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