Possible scenario
Russia Rejects Truce
32% Chance
The Kremlin publicly rejects the White House framing and resumes pressure on Ukraine’s power system. This is plausible because Russia has recently targeted Ukrainian grid capacity and may view energy infrastructure as leverage before winter.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.0%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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