Possible scenario
Formal Limited Truce
20% Chance
After denying that it had already agreed, Russia accepts a narrower text that allows both sides to claim they conceded little. The deal is limited to major power plants, substations and refineries, with verification handled indirectly through U.S. and European monitoring.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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