Possible scenario
Relief Rebound Emerges
20% Chance
Bitcoin rebounds as the forced-selling episode exhausts near-term leverage and traders buy the dip. The recovery is plausible because prior ETF inflow strength suggests there may still be institutional demand at lower prices.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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