Possible scenario
Joint Crackdown Channel
25% Chance
Washington and Mexico City use the attack to formalize a joint security mechanism while publicly preserving Mexican sovereignty. This outcome reduces the risk of unilateral U.S. action and limits disruption to trade.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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