Possible scenario
Vance Enters Race
48% Chance
Vance remains the most natural heir to the Trump-Vance administration and has visible grassroots demand inside the GOP. His hesitation is likely tactical, allowing him to avoid appearing presumptive before the 2026 midterms and before Trump signals how aggressively he wants to shape 2028.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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