Possible scenario
Vance Declines Bid
17% Chance
Vance could decide that remaining vice president, preserving his national standing, or avoiding a divisive primary is preferable to running immediately. This would sharply reshape the GOP field and elevate Rubio, Cruz, and governors who have waited for an opening.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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