Possible scenario
Decision Gets Delayed
22% Chance
Vance continues to defer a formal decision while acting like the leading prospective candidate. This lets him stay focused on the vice presidency, avoid alienating Trump, and keep rivals from defining him too early.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.