Possible scenario
State Holds Line
40% Chance
Lebanese prosecutors proceed with the subpoena of Hezbollah liaison chief Wafiq Safa while the Lebanese Army retains custody of the seized explosives. Hezbollah denounces the move but avoids a direct confrontation because returning the shipment would trigger immediate U.S. retaliation and deepen Lebanon's institutional crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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