Possible scenario
Hezbollah Escalates Domestically
20% Chance
Hezbollah raises the cost of the investigation through controlled street pressure, accusing Lebanese authorities of executing a U.S. demand. The most likely escalation is calibrated protest activity rather than a full rupture with the Army, but the risk of clashes rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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